The Statistical Illusion Inside Canada’s Housing Data

In 2025, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) reported nearly 260,000 housing starts, a figure that suggests real progress on the housing crisis. But a deeper look reveals a much more complicated and concerning reality.

Most of the new supply is made up of small condos and apartments, not the family-sized homes people are looking for. Because housing starts are recorded late in the construction process, today’s data often reflects decisions made years ago, not current market conditions.

Even more concerning, pre-construction sales are falling across multiple cities. This raises serious questions about what housing supply will look like in the years ahead.

In this episode, we discuss:

• Why CMHC’s housing starts data can be misleading
• The difference between housing starts and real time market conditions
• Why Canada is building smaller homes
• The composition effect changing housing trends
• What falling pre construction sales signal for the future

Chapters:

00:00:00 Intro: The Housing Data Disconnect

00:01:06 The Problem With CMHC Housing Starts Data

00:04:06 How to Fix Misleading Housing Metrics

00:05:14 The One-Size-Fits-All Data Problem

00:05:49 Generational Shifts in Home Size

00:07:05 Reality vs Data: Smaller Homes and Composition Effects

00:08:14 The Collapse of Pre-Construction Sales

00:09:12 Future Housing Market Outlook 

Research Links

CMHC Housing Report: https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/housing-market/housing-market-outlook 

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.