The Missing Middle Podcast
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The Missing Middle Podcast
Canada Joins the EU?
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This week, Prime Minister Mark Carney will address the European Parliament in an effort to "create greater certainty, security, and prosperity for our peoples." Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reports that Canada is seeking to become an "Associate Member" of the European Union. In our Answer Period livestream, Sabrina Maddeaux and Mike Moffatt will be talking about the benefits and drawbacks of a closer association with the European Union, what an associate membership could look like, and take viewer questions.
Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux
Produced by Meredith Martin
Edited by Sean Foreman and Canadian Civil
Hello, missing middle listeners. What you're about to listen to is a live stream that was recorded on September 16th at 9.15 a.m. We call this an answer period because it's like question period, but you know, with actual answers. Sabrina and Mike talk about the possibility of Canada joining the EU. It's like Brexit, but in reverse. Enjoy.
SPEAKER_01Hi everyone, today is Wednesday, September 16th, and welcome to Answer Period, where today we're doing something special where Mike Moffitt and I, Sabrina Madeau, will be talking about Canada's evolving relationship with the European Union and also taking your audience questions. So let's get started. Mike, when the news broke over the weekend that Canada might potentially be seeking out an associate membership in the European Union, what exactly did you make of that?
SPEAKER_00Well, I I so I saw this piece. It uh came out in the The Wall Street Journal. And I think uh I had the reaction that a lot of people had, which was like, what the heck is an associate membership? It sounds like the thing you get when you want to go to Costco. Uh and you know, I don't think the executive membership. Well, well, exactly. That that one I think you get more air miles or something, but the associate membership, it's kind of entry-level. And I had a laugh uh this morning. Economist uh Giannis uh Verafakis uh on Twitter uh was referencing uh the EU president uh who this morning uh indicated that she would like Canada to become an associate member. Her re uh his reaction was, and I'm gonna quote here, has she lost the very last of her remaining marbles? Miss Von der Leyen offered Canada associate membership of the EU. That would have been fine if it were not for a tiny little snag. There is no such thing as associate membership of the EU. Uh what now, where I disagree with my uh economist colleague here is I don't think it's necessarily a uh bananas idea at all. Um, and certainly associate membership is something that the EU could consider. Um, but yeah, I I thought it was an interesting idea. You know, obviously the devil's in the details here, uh, but I I think there's a lot to be gained uh with Canada having a closer uh relationship with the EU when it comes to uh trade and defense and a number of other areas. So hopefully we get some details this week. Uh I'd love your take on it though.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, it's hard to have a fully fleshed out take because, like you said, there just are so few details at this point. And the details that we do have are constantly evolving, right? We have uh Carney's camp saying, oh, we're not at all interested in an associate membership, we're just evolving the relationship or having a special partnership. And then now you have this offer of maybe an associate membership, but there's a question of did she mean to say something else? And what even does an associate membership entail? It could have means so many things because nothing like that currently exists. So uh, like what I'm interested in today in our conversation is less about debating is this the detail or is that the truth, right? And more about gaming out the potential implications and opportunities and pros and cons of which I think there are a lot of, both pros and cons. I think it's very intriguing in this time, uh, where certainly Carney has a mandate to be diversifying our international relationships and our trade, especially, uh, because of what's going on in the US. And even if there does end up being a deal or an agreement there, um the trust has been broken and how reliable is any deal. So I think this is incredibly intriguing. Uh, my wish is that uh Carney and the federal liberals would be more transparent about communicating with Canadians as to what they're interested in, what they're looking for. I understand that negotiations can't be done in public, but the fact that this came out, you know, initially in the Washington Post, I think it was, a US newspaper, and now we're getting, we're grasping at straws from other international papers and anonymous sources. Uh, for something that's a pretty big deal, I would like to see some more communication, especially because this story's been circulating for a few days at this point.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I I couldn't agree more. Uh, you know, I I and I get why, I don't know, this reminds me of my dating years in my 20s, where I'd be like, well, we don't have to label our relationship. Let's just kind of see where this uh uh see where this goes and let's have fun. But uh, you know, it does, you know, at some point, I I do think uh both Canada and the EU have to say, okay, this is this is what we're thinking, you know, this is what's kind of inbounds, this is what's out of bounds, and uh, and and so on. So I I totally agree. Uh, and I certainly agree that it wasn't ideal that uh Canadians found out about this from uh from a US newspaper at a at a time where we're trying to diversify away from the US.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, absolutely. And since, like we said, there currently is no actual associate membership tier of the EU, this would be something entirely new and needs to be negotiated. Um, but what I'm curious about are what are the potential upsides for Canada in this theoretical closer special tier of membership?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, so I I I would almost treat this more like a trade deal on steroids, right? Where we're kind of breaking down uh trade barriers, uh maybe potentially some labor barriers, and allow us to kind of diversify our trade. I think that's the real benefit of it. Uh we had a couple of uh questions uh that came in that kind of touch on this point. So there was a question from uh Rebecca Chesley uh on Blue Sky. One of her questions was how realistic do you think that we could actually adopt some of the EU standards for things like elevators and cars and so on? And I think this is one of the great benefits of it, is that if we can adopt some of these standards, uh it would allow us to, first of all, import more products from the EU, give consumers more choice, uh lower prices. But if we were also our standards were uh accepted in the EU, then it would allow our products easier access to the EU market. And that can come in a couple different forms. Like it doesn't have to be us just wholesaling uh adopting EU regs. Uh it can be things like like mutual recognition. Like, hey, if your uh, you know, if your standards council says that this product isn't going to start a house fire, that's good enough for us. You don't need uh, you know, you don't need our agency to test it again, and vice versa. So, you know, I see a lot of benefits from that. Um again, I'll kind of throw it to you. Uh you know, do you do you think this is valuable? Particularly again, you you come from uh a little bit different political perspective uh than I come from.
SPEAKER_01There are just so many questions. And I think EU standards and regulations when it comes to housing, we could learn a lot there. We've talked a lot about uh EU, you know, the ability for them to have the true missing middle and more walkable, desirable neighborhoods, um, especially for families in a lot of those countries in their urban centers. So that's interesting. I have no idea because no one's communicated this. If this is at all focused on housing regulations, I somewhat suspect that's not the priority, and that would be maybe a second-order effect, and this would be more about trade. Uh, where my concerns come in is if we were to adopt some of the EU's uh more stringent regulations around uh entrepreneurs and tech and AI, uh, where already, you know, we've been falling behind the US and we struggle to keep up with innovation and we have a lot of brain drain. Uh, and if we adopt some of the EU's more rigid, very slow standards that have resulted in a lot of problems for them with innovation and technology and attracting entrepreneurs and scaling companies, uh, that could really be a bad thing for our already dismal like productivity numbers and also the struggles that the Canadian startup scene is having with investment and growth here. So, with that, I'm curious what you imagine some of the downsides might be.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, well, it uh it goes along with what you said. And it was actually another uh question we got uh from Blue Sky from Jameson Roberts, uh, who says, you know, given our deep integration with the US tech wise and some CEOs' viewpoints on it, would it even be possible for us to adapt and become part of the GDPR, which stands for the General Data Protection Regulation Framework, that would actually give Canadians uh digital privacy? Uh yeah, I have mixed, you know, uh unlike uh Mr. Roberts, I have some mixed views on GDPR. I think parts of it are good. I do think parts of it stifle innovation, stifle startups in the ways that you mentioned. We had a report that came out uh late uh last year looking at this in the healthcare framework. Uh so I do think that you know there are probably some EU regulations that we wouldn't uh wouldn't want to adopt. And that's why I think like kind of a mutual recognition approach works would work better here. So we're not having to necessarily uh utilize these these strict standards. You know, and I also say to the the question that was uh asked on Blue Sky, I do think we're gonna find out that you know a lot uh a lot of the things that we don't do here in Canada, we often blame on the Americans, going, oh, well, it's the Americans' fault that we don't have a wealth tax or GDPR or or all of these things. I I think as we uh disassociate ourselves uh with the EU or with the US, I I think we'll find that a lot of these uh barriers, a lot of these things that we don't do are actually for domestic uh reasons. It's not that the Americans are pushing us around. So all of that's a long-winded way of saying uh I agree with you that there are some of the downsides would be around uh you know adopting some of the more stringent red tape. One thing I'm not concerned about that has come up is people go, well, does this mean that uh Canada would have to contribute to the like common agricultural policy, you know, some of these kind of big funds? I really doubt you know that would happen. I think that's the sort of difference between the the uh associate membership and the executive membership to use our kind of Costco analogy. You know, I I think a lot of the things that kind of annoy some folks about the EU, uh particularly when it comes on the spending side, I can't imagine Canada would get involved in that. Uh I don't I don't even think it's possible for us to uh simply because a lot of that is under provincial regulation. And, you know, good good luck getting 10 provinces on board with that. So that I'm a little bit less worried about.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, that is the other big challenge. I mean, we we hear a lot about oh, well, will all the EU member states agree to this type of relationship? But anything that does need to go through the provinces and territories might be a challenge as well for Canada to even push through, right? Um, especially in this climate where different geographic regions have very different economic interests and are quite politically divided in some cases. Um, I do have a concern if this involves, you know, any large, you know, um sorts of like fees or sending tax dollars to the EU. Um, Canada is already so overtaxed with, I would argue, little value for our tax dollars and a lot of efficiency problems with spending. And I think Canadians might start to bristle there. Um, in terms of another pro, though, I think there's a lot of opportunity to cooperate more when it comes to defense and particularly uh the Arctic and Arctic sovereignty. Uh, so I'd be interested to see any um implications there to coordinate close more closely. Uh so there's interesting opportunities. And the other one is, you know, agriculture has always been a sticking point. And specifically, supply management has been a huge thorn in our side in terms of ability to um create closer trade ties with other countries and uh groups, including the EU. So supply management is very, very difficult for parties of any political stripe to walk away from or, you know, uh reform domestically. And maybe I'm a little bit hopeful this could be a path to uh forcing that through, because in my belief, it's something that's really holding us back and uh raising crop costs for Canadians.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, no, I I I would agree. Uh I would agree with all that. I don't know. It's always it's always uh it's always nice when you and I are in violent agreement about uh things. I'm sure if we if we do this episode, uh this QA long enough, I'm sure we'll find something that we disagree on.
SPEAKER_01When we agree, I assume it just means we're both very correct.
SPEAKER_00So that's the only possible explanation.
SPEAKER_01That's how I see it. Um but I want to explore another area that I think is really important and getting a lot of attention, especially on X. Um, how might this impact the labor market? So, for example, we do have a question from Sean on Blue Sky that says, I don't understand immigration policy. Can Canada do an EU-style freedom of movement and employment agreement with the EU? How would that be different from our current policy? And what would be the trade-offs?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, so currently, um, if Canadians want to work in the EU uh or EU nationals want to work in Canada uh for an extended period of time, you you need to you need to get a visa, assuming that you're you're not a dual citizen. Um there is the potential that the that this could change. Uh, you know, and this is where this would become a trade deal on steroids, um, and could actually be the most transformative part of this, that we could create a situation where can uh Canadians could uh work in the EU uh without having to get a visa, without having to go and go through a process, and uh and vice versa, uh Europeans could come over here. And that would be transformative. Uh that would be uh somewhat, I think, controversial. I think a lot of people would would love that, uh particularly a lot of uh younger people uh being able to uh go to the EU. Uh, you know, I was an exchange student in the Netherlands, and that was one of my you know favorite experiences, so growing up. So if that you know were easier or easier to work there, I could see a lot of uh folks taking advantage of that. You know, I do think the the controversy side would be more Europeans coming over here, you know, there's 450 million of them, there's 40 million of us. So you start to wander around, you know, housing and and things like that. You know, one of the things that you and I were talking about in in our group chat is I do wonder if something like that happened, you know, could that end up closing the door uh or allowing Canada to uh eliminate the temporary foreign workers program, right? Because if we had more mobility with the EU, that kind of, you know, the big thing with the TFW is that it allows for kind of seasonal labor, right? Well, you know, if you've got access to 450 million Europeans, then it shouldn't be as hard to find summer workers for for our hotels or our agricultural fields or or something. So you kind of wonder at that point, well, maybe this is the door that allows us to get rid of the kind of exploitative uh TFW program if we uh, you know, if we have access to this labor. So we'll see. Uh it'll be interesting to see where this goes, but I think this could be the most transformative part of it.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I agree. And that's why it's getting a lot of attention. Obviously, immigration has been a hot button issue for a while now, um, due to the unsustainable immigration policies of uh Trudeau's era. And some, like myself, would argue the continued unsustainable immigration policies. So anything that's uh going to lead to, you know, more open borders or a huge influx of immigration, I think we have to be incredibly cautious about, to say the least, uh, because we're only just starting to recover and align, you know, our population growth with housing, infrastructure, healthcare, other needs, and also figuring out how to uh return to our great like Canadian history of immigration, where we did it in a way that was very, you know, economically beneficial, uh, both for those coming here, but for the country as well. And also the social and cultural integration. Uh, what I think is interesting, especially when you talk about, oh, could this eliminate or significantly change the temporary foreign worker program or any of our other immigration streams? Uh, one of the criticisms of Canada's current immigration program is that it did become over the last uh decade skewed very heavily to certain countries and regions. Um, and for example, the US has a cap where, like, I think it's like 10%, I I'd have to look that up and we're on a live stream, but there's a cap where over a certain percentage can't come from a single country in a year. And maybe this leads to a my more diverse uh pool of migrants, which I think would be really great in terms of uh just also assimilation and social cohesion and some of the more um cultural concerns that have popped up around immigration over the last little bit.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I I I do as well. I I, you know, I I know there's a lot of concern, and I saw it on Twitter around people going, okay, what does this mean for immigration? Is this going to mean uh big population growth and um you know big pressures on housing? But I I don't necessarily think it has to be that way. And I actually think it can lead us to make more sensible uh immigration reforms. Uh now, you know, again, we would have this access to young talent and you know, be able to move back and forth. Uh and I say a question in the chat. I, you know, as I and I I'm gonna ask you this one, Sabrina, partly because you're uh better uh aligned to answer it, I think, but also because they make a pro wrestling reference. And if you ever want to get my attention, this is a really good way of doing it. So um it's like it's uh Jan Anthony uh Mendoza, and I think it's from YouTube, uh asks, what is the probability of the spat between the US and Canada? And I I think that's important. This is just me adding, I think this is important here because a lot of this I think is driven by the Canada US dispute. How much of this uh spat between the US and Canada being Kfabe uh in wrestling speak, in other words, fake, meaning a public facing feud, but still friends in the backstage. Uh so the context here, like how much do you think this Canada US thing is for show versus a real dispute? Because then I think that changes the kind of urgency uh with uh doing something with the EU.
SPEAKER_01It's absolutely a real dispute from everything I've heard behind the scenes. Uh, I think that both sides have very real disagreements. Um, and there's been a lot of emotion on both sides. Uh obviously on the Canadian side, we've been very upset with things uh the American negotiating team has done. And then on their side, they've been very upset about some of the statements our politicians have made in public. Uh, so there's a lot of not just actual trade dispute there, but I'd say a lot of emotion and personality conflict as well. So this is urgent. Um, in terms of, you know, how much does it get played up, or do deals blow up because, you know, perhaps President Trump needs a distraction from other news stories? That's where the show aspect might come into play. But in terms of the dangers for Canada, I would say they're very urgent and real from everything that I've heard and witnessed. Uh, how about you, Mike?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I I would agree. And, you know, people we we we tend to think of of Trump as uh as uh one comedian said, like a horse in a hospital just kind of run running around and causing chaos. But you know, you go back to the 1980s, Trump has always been very, very consistent around his desire to bring manufacturing back to the United States. And the obvious place to get that from, uh particularly if you're talking around steel or automotive, is unfortunately to get it from southwestern Ontario. So I think it's very, very real. Uh, you know, the amount that the Americans kind of back off on it uh for you know economic considerations or or other considerations, you know, I think that's an open question. We do have the whole, you know, Trump always chickens out, you know, taco effect, but but I think the desire on the Americans' part is absolutely real, and uh we should take that into account. Uh, I think the more open question for me is does that desire go away when Trump goes away? Or is this a permanent fixture in Canada-US relationship? I I think that in my mind is more important because you know, on one hand, you go, okay, well, if this is just this guy and he's gonna he's not gonna be there forever, and then once he's gone, we don't have to worry about this anymore. Then you know, in hockey parlance, we can just kind of rag the puck for a couple of years. But if this is a permanent change in the US, and I think it at least partly is, then I do think we have to take it seriously. And I do think that motivates um diversifying our our trade partnerships.
SPEAKER_01You hit on the head that this didn't come out of nowhere for Trump in terms of it being just a show. Um, he has decades of being on the record about tariffs, about manufacturing, right? You know, the 51st state stuff, that's new. But it's not just Trump, it's also those around him in positions of power and influence who really do believe in this approach, and some of whom have a lot of disdain for Canada and just really do believe it is effectively. 51st state or should be. So that doesn't disappear in my mind as soon as Trump goes, or even if the Republicans were to lose, you know, a lot of seats in the midterms or the next presidential election. One thing I've noted is we haven't seen a huge number of Democrats. Some have, yeah, but a lot haven't come out, or they haven't come out until really it started to impact them economically. So this assumption that Democrats or progressives south of the border are willing to go out on a limb, especially if it's not in their own political interest to protect Canada or preserve the relationship, might be a little bit of a fantasy. And we have to remember the history in the states with Democrats and progressives as well has been very protectionist at times. They have not been consistently pro-free trade. And I think a lot of people forget that.
SPEAKER_00Absolutely. You're going to go kind of full Woodrow Wilson on us here. But yeah, it's uh you know, yeah, absolutely. It may be just the Democrats returning to the kind of pre-Clinton uh roots. So speaking of labor, we we have another kind of uh related labor question uh again from uh Jewish Music Toronto, and I think this comes from YouTube as well. So, you know, who asks, what would the incentive be uh for employers to bring in people from the EU if they would have to pay them more? They want uh temporary foreign workers, so they don't have to pay them or treat them to uh employment standards. Well, I I think this kind of calls you know the the bluff of uh of employers uh if they could access this big pool of EU labor, right? So, okay, is this really uh a labor shortage, and in which case you could get uh people from the EU, or is this just you trying to um suppress wages and and labor standards? So, you know, I think I think if we uh had access to EU labor, um, that that would uh answer answer that question. And you know, at some point it becomes a moot question. Uh there was kind of a follow-up around you know the incentive for people to come over. I I think the incentive for people to come over would be in in part, you know, I think you would see a lot of younger folks come over because they they want to visit a new continent, yeah, you know, the uh they want to have new experiences and things like that. Um, so I think at least in in hospitality and uh areas like that, I I do think it on the agriculture side, um there might be, you know, there might be less uh incentive there to come over from the EU, but there still might be, you know, just because of differences in you know timing of harvesting or something like that, right?
SPEAKER_01Where I think though I want to touch on there's also people sometimes forget. Everyone thinks about you know the largest countries in the European Union. But when we were talking in our group chat, you had mentioned and specifically like Eastern Europe as a potential source of labor for some of these industries. And that's something I haven't heard discussed elsewhere. So maybe you could elaborate a bit.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I I I think so, as particularly if the EU expands, right? Because you go, okay, well, you know, is is somebody living in France really going to be that excited by Canadian wages? And the answer is probably no. But if you know the EU expands to Moldova or somewhere with a lot kind of lower wages, and then you know, a lot of the kind of countries in your Eastern Europe, uh Eastern Europe, some of which who have already joined the EU, uh, you know, do have uh lower wages. So yeah, I mean it's not it's a bit different than some of the other countries we we use for TFWs, but there is still a labor gap there. So uh, you know, I kind of joked on um uh in our group chat that you know when it comes to the hospitality industry, we probably even wouldn't need the whole EU. There's probably enough young people living in Poland alone to uh uh staff all of our summer hotels uh in Canada, let alone the 26 other countries in the in the EU. So uh yeah, I I do think there is uh attraction there. And I do think from the employer's point of view, I don't even think it's so much around bringing people over. I think it's more because you wouldn't be doing it through a TFW program now. I think it would be more these companies uh posting job ads online on Indeed or wherever, uh, and uh a young person living in Slovakia sees that and go, yeah, you know what, I I would kind of like to work in Banff for four months. You know, that sounds uh that that sounds fantastic, right? So I do think the dynamics of that labor uh move would be different. I don't think it would be like it works with TFWs right now, with people kind of flying people over and taking care of their accommodations. I think it's just gonna be young people going, yeah, I'll take a I'll take a job for for four months in a different continent. That that sounds like fun.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, and it may vary by sector as well. I know that when the pandemic led to the increase of remote work, um, one of the benefits you would hear about, because I worked with a lot of startup founders at the time, was that suddenly they could hire talent from across the country. And there's there was this permission to not have to be in the office, and they were able to, you know, tap the right talent for the right roles, um, not even taking wages into consideration, uh, but really hire the correct fits. And particularly when we talk about the housing crisis in Canada, there's been a lot of mismatch between where the talent is, especially younger professionals and where the jobs are. Um, so this would open up talent pools for different types of employers for sure. I'm also interested in drilling down more on the other side of the labor equation, not just young people or workers coming here, but are young people and workers potentially going to Europe? Um, because I think that comes with both pros and cons. I think a lot of young people who are suffering with cost of living, maybe unemployment or precarious employment would be like, oh my gosh, like this is something I need to explore. This is a whole nother world of opportunities. Uh, and yeah, there's the ability to potentially um go work in the states, but I think that's pretty concentrated in the tech sector in a certain type of worker. And then on top of that, there are young people who just aren't interested in moving to the states either because of the political climate or because even your immigration status right now might be pretty uncertain. It's hard uh if you, you know, you get a green card and you are laid off, like when you have to come home. Um, and it's very uncertain for young families in particular. So I think there's an opportunity for young people, but also a risk for Canada that this increases brain drain.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, that's a that's a really good point. Uh that yeah, I do think a lot of young people would see this as being uh quite attractive, um, particularly uh given some cost of living uh differentials and and some weather differentials. You'd be like, oh yeah, I can go, I can go live in Greece uh and actually uh uh afford a place there and go to the beach uh and live off a fantastic Mediterranean diet. Yeah, that sounds like a pretty good deal. So that actually, yeah, that's a good point. That that actually may be one of the risks uh for Canada. You know, I the silver lining I see in that is maybe it would actually force us to take uh the concerns of young people uh seriously. I've got another question, uh, and I'm gonna do that. I've I I I want to ask you this question. Uh it's come in from YouTube, and I think I know what your answer is going to be. Uh, so I'm gonna do a prediction. Uh, I'm not gonna tell you my prediction, obviously, but I want to hear how you answer this. And it comes from Bob Roland3231, who asks in case of a closer alignment between Canada and the EU, what are the hard limits that you see that Canada should not accept? Adopting of the Euro, automatic adoption of EU standards, free movement, and I'll add something else. So don't feel uh bound by those. What in your mind would be the sort of red line?
SPEAKER_01I'd say, again, buying fully into their tech regulations and a lot of their standards that slow down the pace of doing business. So anything that we would just adopt all their standards and regulations or have to match them wholesale would be out of the question for me. I that wouldn't work for Canada. Anything that resulted in, you know, fully open borders, especially with um some of the countries that are really struggling with the amount of migrants and asylum seekers they've let in over the last few years, and that's causing them a lot of economic problems and social strife as well, would be very bad for Canada. Um, those would be the two biggest red lines for me. Uh adopting the Euro wouldn't be useful for us either. I would like to see us keep our sovereignty in our Canadian dollar, and I don't think there's a big appetite there. So um also anything else that just removes control from Canadian voters, especially if there's any scenario where we are having to um adhere to EU decisions or regulations, but we don't get any sort of you know democratic representation, uh, especially if our tax dollars start going over there. Those are the biggest concerns for me.
SPEAKER_00Okay, I nailed it. Uh because I I, you know, I thought you would, you know, uh be concerned about all those things. But the the one in particular I saw a lot on on Twitter is the asylum one. I think that would be a non-starter for uh Canadians. Interestingly enough, I was actually looking at the data and in 2023 per capita, Canada actually had more asylum claimants than most EU countries, right? So I don't know if the Europeans would be comfortable with uh, you know, because we have whether it be international students uh who are seeking asylum after they uh overtake their visas, or you know, we we do have the folks uh coming in from South and Central America, come up through the US and then come up through Canada and seek asylum here. I'm not sure the Europeans would be that comfortable uh with that either. So I just think that's a whole hornet's nest that neither the EU nor Canada wants. So I don't I don't see us uh going there. I I do think that would blow up uh the entire deal. Uh I do think wholesale adoption of every single EU standard would be a bad idea. I do think we have to sort of pick and choose. And again, I I would prefer a mutual recognition approach rather than just go, okay, we're gonna wholesale replace ours with theirs. And then I would say the the uh EU agricultural uh policies and and and funds. I think those would be red lines. But I can't I can't see any of those happening anyway. They just seem like they're they're too complex. They would take too long to negotiate how that would work through an associate's membership model. So, you know, I I think the kind of complexity of all that kind of saves us from it. And and the euro, I mean, as a it's a non-start. We're not using the euro. Not even uh, you know, all of the EU uses the euro. So that's that's not happening. So no concerns there.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I would expect them to go for the lowest hanging fruit um because of the sense of urgency right now, politically, right? Neither side wants this to be something that takes years to negotiate and then ratify. Um, like the current trade deal that we have that could potentially be had with them, that's still being stuck and not being supported by several EU member states. Uh, they want something to show voters and improve the situation now, like yesterday, right? So they're going to move forward on the things that are probably the least politically controversial, the least complicated, and the things that would get the most buy-in from those who do need to either vote or ratify anything that goes through. I want to now go to a question, though, from Boomer Welfare State on YouTube that says boomers are selling our sea and airports. What happened to Canada is not for sale. What happened to Canada is a sovereign nation. So, Mike, what are your thoughts on how this could impact Canada from a soft sovereignty perspective? And are are you concerned about that?
SPEAKER_00Well, the first thing that I had to do some mental math and go, okay, is Carney a boomer or an old Gen X or? But I think he technically is a boomer. So I'll I'll kind of uh uh allow this this framing. Um, yeah, well, so I uh there's a couple points on this. So the the one I I think the media has kind of misrepresented what what's what's happening, uh, and we can argue it's a distinction without a difference. But um what Canada is looking at uh is not a wholesale sale of these assets, but it's basically what's called a concession, where the government still holds on to the land, still owns the asset, but they basically allow a uh a private company uh or pension fund or whatever to run the asset for a period of time. And then once that period of time is over, it kind of reverts back uh to uh to being being run again by uh the government. I I'm kind of uh mixed views uh on that. That um on the one hand, you know, a lot of these work out really well. Uh and one of the reasons why they work out well is that when the government's running something, uh they tend not to regulate it very well. You know, people don't tend to self-regulate very well. Uh, you know, we kind of need that outside of regulation. So, you know, and there's there's research and data to back this up, that that governments, when um they take these assets and allow these assets to be run by a third party, uh, are more likely to treat that third party like a third party and and you know, place better oversight and regulation on them. So that's the kind of upside. The downside, and this is where I kind of say this is a just might be a distinction for that difference, is the 407 works on that model, right? Like the province of Ontario still technically owns the 407, they've just done it on a 99-year concession. So, you know, I could totally say it's like, okay, well, that was a complete uh disaster, so we probably don't want that again. Uh and you know, I but I do think this this, you know, the the timing of this is not coincidental. I think part of what Carney's doing to try and make deals like this attractive is make it easier for European uh pension funds to be able to invest in these assets, just the way that the same way that the CPPIB, our uh state pension fund, owns a lot of concessions in Europe and so on. I think they run a number of European airports. So there's this kind of a uh reciprocity uh type uh agreement. I'd love to get your thoughts on the because this is one where I actually can't predict what you're going to say. Um, so I'd love to get your thoughts here.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I think we obviously have to be careful about protecting our sovereignty and just not having, you know, some fire sale of assets. But I there's in my mind a lot of opportunity for increased privatization and increased investment, even from foreign sources uh throughout Canada, both in infrastructure, uh, but also even like, you know, opening up the ability for foreign airlines to serve domestic routes. Um, you look at telecoms, all of that. Uh, because one of our biggest issues in Canada is that in these major, major industries, we have what are effective like oligopolies, where very few players control um both how much customers pay, the quality of experience. Uh, but then you start to look at things like labor conditions and wages and risks to the economy when there are layoffs or one company is struggling, and then the taxpayers bailing these out, these companies out, or um politicians feeling like they have to subsidize them because they have so much power and they're too big to fail. So I would like to see in general uh more diversification of our economy. And I think some of that should absolutely tap into foreign capital.
SPEAKER_00Yeah. Uh so uh I I would agree. We're supposed to disagree about something uh here. Uh we're we're we're losing the whole kind of left-right uh dynamic, but uh you're being far too reasonable uh today. Um so I'm gonna uh I'm gonna keep feeding you questions about uh conservative views and uh uh conservative positions in the hope that I can find some some disagreement uh between us. So uh question uh that I'd written down, and actually it it uh relates to one that just came into the chat. So you know, one of the things I've been thinking about is all the chatter online uh with uh we've seen conservative pundits suggest uh that you know, if Canada were to do this associate membership of the EU thing, then you know, Mark Carney should hold an election in order to obtain a political mandate for such a change. Uh we also saw a question come in from paper bag Prime Minister Nine, and that goes dot dot dot. So I don't know the end of their username. You know, fighting the next election over EU membership would be a great distraction for government. So I will note at what 47% in the polls, I don't know how much a distraction they need. But my pitch to uh or my question to you, uh, based on these is uh, do you is this the kind of thing that uh Carney uh should call an election for if we are going to uh sign this uh associate membership?
SPEAKER_01We don't know what it is at this point, right? So if it were to be something where we were to become like close to a full-fledged member or massive amounts of tax dollars are going over there, or we are adopting wholesale regulations or any of those more extreme scenarios that we've talked about, then an election or a referendum, I think could be in order. But in general, the conservative reaction, I would say, has been well quite reactionary as it has been lately on quite a few files. And because there are so few details, uh I would encourage some stepping back, slowing down, and really thinking through the implications of things like saying, oh, there's no mandate for this, there needs to be an election, he didn't campaign on this. Because have you seen the poll numbers, right? Poll after poll shows the conservatives hitting rock bottom, um, having really disastrous electoral losses, really across most of the country. So if this did, if he called their bluff, essentially, if it is a bluff and said, okay, let's let's have a campaign that they demanded this, let's let's run an election, uh, that would result very likely in a massive liberal majority. Um, so the election route is not something that I think is a smart uh political play for the conservatives, uh, or and they have to be careful on their comms on that. And then also if you look at polling around what the public thinks about closer ties with the EU and even the question of full EU membership, uh, there's a lot of support there, uh much more than you would think. And then, of course, when this plays out, what are the trade-offs and maybe that changes? Uh, but there's no massive public outcry that I've seen outside of X about this being a possibility at this moment in time. And even when you look at who's still supporting conservatives, um, immigration, those who care about immigration, and especially younger voters uh are still more supportive than the general population of the CPC. But also a lot of young people are the ones who might say, hey, if this allows me to pick up and get a job and buy a home in the EU and maybe immigrate, that could change pretty quickly. Um so I think there's a lot of analysis and polling beyond just figuring out the details to be done on the conservative side to figure out where their coalition would stand on this. Uh and I think some of the base's reaction, especially the base that is that section that is a bit more pro-Trump, mega uh friendlier than the average Canadian still towards the US, is having a, oh, we don't want to be like those elite Europeans reaction, right? Uh and that's an instinct that we should stay away from. There's a space for criticism, certainly. We need more transparency. We need to know the details. There will be very real trade-offs if some of these scenarios play out. So let's focus on that.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I agree. And, you know, some as the uh token liberal whisperer here, the failed liberal academic, you know, I could only imagine Carney was thinking, like, like, don't threaten me with a good time. Uh, and I could actually see uh, you know, if a deal were signed, that were, you know, that was was actually a bigger deal than just kind of a slight trade deal. I could I could see the the government deciding, no, we we actually do need a mandate uh from the people here. And you know, look at it from the government's point of view, that as you point out, like a deal with the EU is quite popular, number one. The government itself is quite popular. Uh the the opposition conservatives are not particularly popular. And we've also have to consider the NDP, which are somewhere between six and seven. Last I saw, we're about six to seven million dollars in debt. It's a debt that they're paying a prime interest rate plus I think uh one and a half percentage points of interest on. And the prime rate, as we all see, is going up because bond rates are going up. So you've got the NDP who can't afford to fight an election. Uh, and even in Quebec, we're seeing a rally around the flag effect that are that's making the separatists less popular. So, like, I like is Mark Carney afraid of fighting the Green Party? Like, I don't know who's left uh at that point. So um, yeah, all of that's to say I could see the government, should a deal be signed, uh, going to the people and saying, Hey, you know what, this is actually a really big deal. Um so you know we we we do think Canadians should have the opportunity to weigh in. We'll call an election on that, just the same way like the 1988 election was the free trade election. We might have the 2028 election being the EU uh free trade election. So I'm gonna go to you for your final thoughts, uh, because we do need to close this out soon. But I did see a comment uh from uh producer Meredith who points out that Mark Carney was born in 1965, uh and the boomer era ends on or before 64. So he is technically a Gen Xer, an elder Gen Xer, but a Gen Axer nonetheless. So next time I see him, I'm gonna there's a question I ask all old Gen Xers, which you probably won't get, but they do. I just ask them uh which band is better, uh Joy Division or New Order. So uh Prime Minister Carney, if you're you're watching, I want you to think about this question because I do it expect an answer.
SPEAKER_01I would like to, as a final thought, we do have not really a question, but a comment from Barnacle Beard on YouTube that ties into what I think might be some underlying public sentiment the conservatives aren't picking up on. It says it would be so amazing, and it's never going to happen in my lifetime. But can you imagine being able to live and work anywhere in the EU and having everyone in the EU living and working here? That would be incredible. Uh, I do think there are a lot more young people who are very frustrated and might be looking to get, you know, the hell out of Dodge than those in power uh might think. And maybe even the liberals are underestimating uh how much drive there might be there. I also think you have a lot of young professionals who see a big divide between the advantages some of their peers have who have uh dual citizenships or multiple passports and the ability that's given them to build their careers and be more mobile uh in terms of where they live. And that's something that I don't think prior generations uh saw a divide on as much as some young people and young professionals in today's cities. Even the opportunities for young parents and families if their children have those dual passports and citizenships in terms of, you know, their educational futures, uh, their retirement goals, uh the opportunities for their families in the future. And I'm curious if you uh as a Gen Xer have noticed that divide at all.
SPEAKER_00Oh, yeah, no, that that that absolutely uh that absolutely exists. Um so yeah, I do think it would be interesting to see if uh, you know, you had that kind of free movement. But I do think we would have more of that. Uh I do worry a little bit what what traffic would look like if 450 million people all uh came over at once. Uh and the final question I have is uh, you know, apparently we're joining Eurovision, which is awesome, but what does all this mean for the future of Canadian soccer? You know, are our teams going to be able to play in some of those European uh tournaments? But yeah, overall, I I totally agree there is this kind of generational divide, uh, you know, I think with Gen Xers and Boomers on one side and younger generations on the other.
SPEAKER_01So give me your final thought, Mike.
SPEAKER_00Uh, I'm cautiously optimistic. Like it, like anything else, uh, we need to see the details, uh, but I think this is the right path. Uh, I think we do need to uh develop closer ties with the EU. I would also like to see us uh develop closer ties to some of the democracies in Asia, like Japan and Korea and so on. I I think this is the right call. And I think it's the right call, even if we um patch things up with the US. I do think uh having more opportunities, more um, you know, export opportunities, more uh diverse export markets, but also more opportunities for Canadian consumers to uh uh you know uh have more competition. Because, you know, one of the things we didn't talk about is, you know, would it would it make it easier for European grocery stores to open up in Canada? Would it be easier for European airlines to uh you know offer within Canadian routes, right? So could I take uh I was gonna say British Airways, but I guess they're not EU, but uh, you know, could I take a Luthanza flight from Toronto to Vancouver, right? That would be awesome. You know, that would kind of create extra uh competition. So I am all for this. The devil's in the details, but I think this could get Canada to be a more uh competitive, dynamic place and offer more options for consumers and families.
SPEAKER_01Absolutely. And with that, we do have to wrap. So thank you everyone so much for tuning in and watching and listening. Uh, the producer of today's episode is Meredith Martin and the editor is Sean Foreman.
SPEAKER_00And if you have any third excuse me, so I've like stumbled. We almost made it through. I almost made it. Anyhow, folks, if you have any further questions about uh the uh brand preferences of elder Gen Xers, please leave a comment and we'll keep the conversation going uh here on YouTube.
SPEAKER_01And we'll see you all next time.